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by Darius Anucauskas

AUD/NZD is Getting Squeezed

Overall, AUD/NZD has been on a downslide since January 21st, when the pair peaked and hit the 1.0670 barrier. But from around mid-February, it has been failing to form a lower low, which is forcing the pair to coil up. Given that the rate is stuck between two lines, a short-term downside resistance one taken from the high of January 21st and a short-term upside one drawn from the low of February 15th, we will remain neutral and wait for a confirmation break.

If AUD/NZD decides to hold on to the downside trendline and continue moving in its direction, then a break of the short-term upside support line and a drop below the 1.0395 hurdle could raise concerns in the bull-bloc and push the rate further south. This is when we will target the 1.0370 obstacle, which marks the low of February 15th. If this area struggles to withhold the bear-pressure, then a break below it may invite more sellers, who might drive the pair to the 1.0332 level, marked by the low of January 25th, 2017.

Looking at our oscillators, the RSI and the MACD, both are somewhat flat, not giving us a clear signal of the next directional move. The RSI is pointing higher, but still remains below 50. The MACD is running flat, remains below zero, but sits above its trigger line.

On the other hand, in order to examine the upside in the near term, we would like to see the rate pushing above the previously-mentioned downside resistance line and the 1.0443 barrier. This way AUD/NZD may once again travel to the recent highs, where the first resistance could be the 1.0462 hurdle, marked by the high of February 28th. If that hurdle is just seen as a temporary pit-stop for the bulls to refuel, a further uprise might bring the pair to the 1.0490 level, which is the high of February 22nd.

AUDNZD 4hour


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