AUD/USD traded higher today, but hit resistance near the 0.6545 barrier and then it pulled back. Overall, the price structure remains of higher highs and higher lows above an upside support line drawn from the low of March 20th, and thus, we would consider the near-term outlook to be positive for now.
The current setback may continue for a while more, but the bulls may wake up near the crossroads of the upside line and the 0.6435 zone. They may pull the trigger for another test near the 0.6545 barrier, the break of which may set the stage for extensions towards the high of March 9th, at around 0.6680.
Taking a look at our short-term oscillators, we see that the RSI turned down and just exited its above-70 zone, while the MACD, although above both its zero and trigger lines, shows signs of topping. It could fall back below its trigger soon. Both indicators detect slowing upside speed and corroborate our view with regards to a minor setback before the next leg north.
Having said all that, in order to start examining whether the bears have gained the upper hand, we would like to see a dip below 0.6335. The rate would already be below the aforementioned upside support line and may initially aim for the next key support, at around 0.6265. If the bears are not willing to stop there, the next area to watch out for may be the low of April 9th, at around 0.6195. Another break, below 0.6195, could see scope for extensions towards the low of the day before, at 0.6115.
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