EUR/RUB had been on a steep downtrend for almost a month, and the reason for that was a combination of both, a stronger Rubble and a weaker Euro. But the pair has now broken its short-term steep downside resistance line taken from the peak of the 10th of September and is positioning itself for a possible retracement to the upside. Therefore, we will remain cautiously-bullish and aim for levels that were last seen in the end of September. At any point, any negative news from Europe could spook the bulls and the bears could take control again.
A break and a close above the 76.25 barrier could set the stage for a possible move towards the next strong area of resistance near the 77.10 area, which on the 25th of September acted as good support for EUR/RUB. The pair could stall there for a while, until the bulls and the bears decide on who will take control from there. If the buying action continues, EUR/RUB could easily make its way higher to the 77.53 zone, marked by the high of the 26th of September and the low of the 20th of September.
The RSI has rebounded from its lows near the 20 zone and currently sits near 50. The MACD is also showing signs of bottoming and has now moved above its trigger line, pointing to the upside. Both are supporting the notion of a possible uprise in EUR/RUB.
On the downside, a drop below the 75.55 line, could spook the bulls in favour of the bears, who in their case, could drive the pair back down towards the 75.00 barrier that held the rate from dropping lower on Tuesday. This is where we should become extra cautious, as the bears could meet some resistance from the bulls again. If the bulls fail to show strength, we could see the pair rolling over towards the 74.43 barrier, which is not far from the medium-term tentative upside support line taken from low of the 4th of June, which could stop the fall of EUR/RUB.
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