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by Darius Anucauskas

Could USD/RUB Make Its Way Up Again?

It looks like the USD dollar started picking up the pace against its Russian counterpart again, as USD/RUB is shifting away from the medium-term upside support line, drawn from the low of the 11th of July. At the same time, the pair is trading above the short-term upwards-moving trendline taken from the low of the 24th of October. Given all that, we will remain bullish over the near-term outlook.

At the time of this analysis, USD/RUB is testing its key resistance near the 66.440 level, marked by Monday’s high. If that level breaks and the pair moves above it, this may clear the path towards the next potential area of resistance at the 67.000 barrier, which held the rate down since the 19th of September.  USD/RUB could stall there for a bit, until the bulls and bears decide who will remain in the driver’s seat. If the buyers continue to dictate the rules, then we could see some more upside activity, which could lead towards a test of the 67.435 area, marked near the low of the 14th of September.

The RSI and the MACD area somewhat in support of the above-discussed scenario. The RSI, even though flat right now, continues to run above 50, which still could be seen as a positive sign. The MACD, already positive, has just poked its nose above its trigger line, also supporting the case for some further advances.

Even if USD/RUB decides to retrace back down and breaks the previously-mentioned short-term upwards-sloping trendline, still, not all is lost for the bulls, as the pair could rebound from the above-mentioned medium-term upside support line.

The alternative idea here would be if USD/RUB-bears decides to break the aforementioned medium-term upside support line and continue to push lower. If the pair moves further down below the 64.913 support area, this is where more sellers could be stepping in and driving the rate towards the next potential support hurdle at 64.200, marked by the peak of 19th of June. If that hurdle is not able to slow down the selling momentum, then the bears could easily drag the pair to the 63.750 barrier, which acted as a resistance level on the 6th of August, and could now turn into a good support.

USDRUB 4hour


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