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by Darius Anucauskas

EUR/TRY is Aiming For The Upper Bound of the Range

After sliding into a wide range, between the 5.843 and 6.359 levels, EUR/TRY seems to be trying to make its way back up to test the upper bound of that range. Of course, before it could do that, the pair would have to overcome a few key resistance barriers. After testing and failing to close a daily candle below the 5.922 hurdle since the beginning of December, the pair had moved away from it to the upside and has now a good chance of moving further in that direction.

Before EUR/TRY could aim higher, it would need to overcome the 6.120 barrier first, as only then the path further north might be cleared. The next resistance obstacle after that break could be around the 6.241 zone, which marks the inside swing low of January 11th. But if the buying doesn’t end there, the rate could easily accelerate towards the upper bound of the aforementioned range, at 6.359. This is where the big battle between the bulls and the bears may occur, as they could be deciding on the further faith of the pair.

Looking at our oscillators on the 4-hour chart, we can notice that the RSI is running above 50 and points to the upside. The MACD had just moved fractionally above zero and its trigger line and also points slightly to the upside.

Alternatively, a 180-degree reversal with a break back below the 6.008 hurdle, could introduce more sellers into the game and might push EUR/TRY to it key support zone, at 5.922, which was mentioned above. If this time that zone fails to withhold the pair from moving lower, a break below could lead to a test of the 5.843 level, which held EUR/TRY from sliding further between November 29th and December 3rd.  

TRYJPY daily


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