From around the beginning of October, EUR/SEK has been moving lower, trading below a short-term downside resistance line drawn from the high of October 10th. Recently, the pair started moving sideways, ranging roughly between 10.412 and 10.495 levels. Although the overall trend is still to the downside, we need a clear break through the lower side of that range before examining a further short-term directional move, hence why we will take a cautiously-bearish approach for now.
If we do get a drop below the 10.412 hurdle, this would confirm a forthcoming lower low and more sellers might be willing to join in. This could clear the path to the 10.377 zone, which is the lowest point of April. The rate might stall around there, or even correct back up a bit. That said, if it continues to trade below the 10.412 barrier, or the 21-day EMA, this could result in another round of selling. If this time the 10.377 area fails to withstand the bear pressure, its break could send EUR/SEK to the 10.338 hurdle, or even to the 10.295 level, marked by the highs of January 3rd and 17th.
Alternatively, for us to consider the upside again, at least in the near term, we will wait for a push above the upper side of the aforementioned range, at 10.495, and a break of the previously-discussed downside line. We will then aim for the 10.571 obstacle, a break of which may lead the pair to the 10.610, or the 10.626 levels, marked by the low of November 7th and the high of November 25th respectively.
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