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by Charalambos Pissouros

Is USD/CHF Poised to Turn South Again?

USD/CHF traded higher today, after it hit support at 0.9590 on Friday. Overall, the rate is trading below a prior tentative upside support line drawn from the low of the 16th of March, as well as below all three of our moving averages on the 4-hour chart. That said, the move that would confirm a forthcoming lower low and shift the outlook to a more bearish one could be a decisive dip below 0.9590, which also marks the low of April 14th.

If such a dip eventually happens, we could see the bears driving the battle towards the lows of March 27th and 30th, near the psychological zone of 0.9500. However, before the bears decide to take charge again, we may see the current rebound extending above the 0.9670 and perhaps challenging the 0.9710 area, or the aforementioned upside line.

Our short-term oscillators support the notion of seeing some further recovery before the next negative leg. The RSI turned up after hitting support near its 30 line and now looks to be heading towards 50, while the MACD, although negative, has bottomed and crossed above its trigger line.

Having said all that though, in order to start examining whether the outlook of this pair has become brighter, we would like to see a strong break above 0.9800, a hurdle which provided strong resistance on April 6th, 24th, and 28th. The rate would already be back above the upside line, while the beak above 0.9800 would confirm a forthcoming higher high. The bulls may initially aim for the peak of March 24th, at around 0.9845, the break of which could extend the advance towards the 0.9900 zone, defined as a resistance by the highs of March 20th and 23rd.

USD/CHF 4-hour chart technical analysis


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