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by Darius Anucauskas

Looks Like EUR/RUB Is Trying to Make Its Way Higher Again

Last week, EUR/RUB found good support near the 71.39 hurdle, from which it reversed and pushed higher again. From there onwards, the pair managed to form a higher low and a higher high, resulting in a break above the short-term downside resistance line drawn from the high of February 14th. At the same time, the rate also remains above its tentative upside line, taken from the lowest point of April. It seems that the Russian Rubble is starting to lose its grounds and such activity could interest more bulls to jump into the action again. For now, we will continue targeting slightly higher zones, as long as the rate keeps trading above both aforementioned lines, we will stay positive at least over the short-term outlook.

A further push higher could bring the rate to the 72.930 area, which on April 12th acted as a good resistance and held the pair down. Something similar could happen again, where the rate-acceleration could ease off a bit near that zone. We may even see a small correction back down towards the 72.410 hurdle, or the previously-mentioned tentative upside line. If that line holds the rate from falling further, the bulls could easily pick up on that and drive EUR/RUB back up. This time, if the 72.930 barrier fails to withstand the bull-pressure, a break of it might lead the pair towards the 73.190 obstacle, which is the high of April 9th. Slightly above that sits another potential resistance area, near the 73.544 hurdle, marked by the high of April 4th. That zone also coincides with the 200 EMA on the 4-hour chart.

Looking at our oscillators, the RSI and the MACD, both are in support of the above-discussed idea. The RSI is above 50 and points higher. The MACD is finally back into the positive territory, sits above the trigger line and points higher.

Alternatively, we will turn our heads back to the downside if we see a break of the tentative upside line and also a rate-drop back below the downside resistance line. This could spook the bulls from the field in favour of the bears, who may lead the pair down, to test the 71.830 obstacle, a break of which might drag EUR/RUB to the lowest point of April, at 71.390.

EURRUB 4hour


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