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by Darius Anucauskas

The Bulls May Revisit USD/RUB

Since the end of December USD/RUB kept moving lower, dropping almost 500 pips. But in the end of January, the pair found support near the 65.158 hurdle, from which it reversed higher and broke the short-term downside resistance line, drawn from the high of January 14th. Currently, USD/RUB is also trading above its short-term upside line taken from the low of the reversal date, on January 31st. Even though we may see a small correction back down to the crossroads of the two above-mentioned lines, still, as long as both of them remain intact, we will aim for slightly higher levels.

As mentioned above, even if USD/RUB corrects a bit lower, but fails to drop below the aforementioned lines, the bulls could see this as a good opportunity to step in and push the rate higher. For a better confirmation of the upside, a break above the 66.146 level could be exactly what more buyers need in order to join in the action. This is when we may examine the possibility of seeing a move towards the 66.403 obstacle, a break of which may clear the path to the 200 EMA, which is near the 66.576 barrier, marked by the high of January 22nd.

Taking a quick glance at our oscillators, the RSI is currently above 50, which is a good sign for the bulls, but remains somewhat flat for now. The MACD, after running below zero, has finally entered the positive territory and is sitting above its trigger line. Both indicators are somewhat leaning towards the upside, at least in the short run.

Alternatively, a drop below both of the previously-mentioned lines, could spook the bulls from the field in favour of the bears. This is when USD/RUB might travel towards the 65.414 obstacle, which, if fails to withhold the rate from falling further, could open the way to the next potential area of support, at 65.158. This area was last time tested on January 31st.

USDRUB 4hour


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