Looking at TRY/JPY’s technical picture on the daily chart, we can see that the pair has been forming higher lows, but is struggling to overcome its key resistance area between the 19.10 and 19.15 levels. In addition to that, the rate is still balancing below its 200-day EMA, which is keeping it under pressure. That said, given that the pair continues to trade above its short-term tentative upside support line taken from the low of October 14th, the bulls still have a chance to push higher. For now, we will stay cautiously-bullish and wait for a clear break through the above-mentioned resistance area first, before targeting higher levels.
A strong push above the 19.15 barrier, marked by the high of October 1st would confirm a forthcoming higher high and could attract more bulls into the field. This is when the pair might set sail to the 19.42 obstacle, marked by the high of August 8th. If that hurdle is not able to slow down the buyers, its break may lead the rate to the 19.67 zone. That zone marks the highest point of July.
Our oscillators, the RSI and the MACD, are slightly in support of the upside scenario. The RSI is above 50 and is pointing higher. The MACD is still in the positive territory and points slightly higher, but remains below the trigger line.
On the other hand, if the pair reverses back down, breaks the aforementioned upside line and falls below the 18.77 hurdle, marked by the low of November 14th, this could spook the buyers and allow more sellers to jump into the game. This could send TRY/JPY to the 18.51 obstacle, a break of which may open the door for a move to the lowest point of October, at 18.17.
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