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by Charalambos Pissouros

USD/NOK Holds Above an Uptrend Line

USD/NOK has been trading in a consolidative manner since yesterday, between the 9.230 and 9.295 barriers. That said, on Tuesday, the pair rebounded from the uptrend line drawn from the low of January 2nd and as long as it continues to trade above that line, we would consider the short-term outlook to be positive.

But, before we get confident on decent advances, we would like to see a clear break above 9.295. Such a move may initially aim for the 9.380 zone, the break of which could extend the recovery towards the 9.440 barrier, marked by the peak of March 2nd. If the bulls are not willing to stop there either, we may see them putting the 9.498 zone on their radars. That zone is defined as a resistance by the high of February 28th.

Looking at our short-term oscillators, we see that the RSI rebounded from its 30 line and now looks to be slowly drifting towards its 50 line, while the MACD has bottomed within its negative territory and now lies above its trigger line. Both indicators suggest that the rate may start picking upside speed soon, which supports the idea of a rebound in this exchange rate.

In order to start examining the case of a trend reversal, we would like to see a decisive dip below 9.175. This would confirm the break below the aforementioned uptrend line and may initially allow declines towards the lows of January 28th and 29th, at around 9.107. If the bears are strong enough to overcome that hurdle as well, then we may see them pushing towards the 9.028 area, marked by the inside swing high of January 23rd.

USD/NOK 4-hour chart technical analysis


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