USD/RUB opened with a negative gap today, breaking below 63.65, which is the lower end of a sideways range that was containing most of the price action since March 13th. Following the gap down, the slide continued and at the time of writing, the bears appear willing to stay in the driver’s seat. In our view, the dip below the aforementioned medium-term range has turned the outlook of this exchange rate to the downside.
As we already noted, the bears appear willing to continue pushing lower, and we believe that they could challenge the 62.95 support soon, marked by the low of August 2nd, 2018. Bearing in mind the overstretched slide thoguh, the bears may decide to take a small break after hitting the 62.95 area, thereby allowing a small rebound. However, as long as such a recovery stays below the 63.63 obstacle, we would see a decent chance for another push lower. If the upcoming negative leg results in the break of the 62.95 zone, then we could experience extensions towards the lows of July 30th and 31st, 2018, near 62.15.
Our short-term oscillators detect strong downside momentum and corroborate our view for more declines. The RSI lies well below its 30 line, pointing down, while the MACD stands below both its zero and trigger lines, and points south as well.
In order to drop the bearish case, we would like to see a decent rebound back above 64.15, or even better, above 64.40. Such a move could confirm the rate’s return within the aforementioned range and could initially aim for the 64.82 zone, near the high of June 12th. Another break, above 64.82, could extend the recovery towards the 65.35 level, or the range’s upper bound, at around 65.60.
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