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by Charalambos Pissouros

Will NZD/CAD Escape its Range Soon?

NZD/CAD traded lower after it hit resistance slightly below the 0.8555 barrier yesterday. Overall, since April 8th, the pair has been oscillating within a sideways range, between that barrier and the support of 0.8390 and thus, we will stay sidelined for now.

In order to start examining whether the bears have gained the upper hand, we would like to see a decisive dip below the lower end of the range, at 0.8390. Such a move would confirm a forthcoming lower low and may initially aim for the lows of April 7th and 8th, at 0.8340. If the bears do not stop there, we could see the slide extending towards the 0.8270 hurdle, the break of which may allow a test near the low of March 26th, near 0.8220.

Shifting attention to our short-term oscillators, we see that the RSI has turned flat, but continues to run below its 50 line, while the MACD, already below its trigger line, has just turned fractionally negative. Both indicators suggest that the price momentum is somewhat negative, but as we already noted, we prefer to wait for a dip below 0.8390 before getting confident on larger bearish extensions.

On the upside, the move that could encourage more bulls to jump into the action may be a break above the upper bound of the range, which is at 0.8555. This would confirm a forthcoming higher high and may trigger advances towards 0.8635, marked by an intraday swing high formed on March 12th. Another break, above 0.8635, could set the stage for extensions towards the peak of the day before, near 0.8700.

NZD/CAD 4-hour chart technical analysis


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