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by Darius Anucauskas

Perspectivas semanales: 03 de agosto - 07 de agosto: tasas de interés de RBA y BoE, empleos en EE. UU. en el foco

El calendario económico estará lleno esta semana. Tenemos PMI manufactureros y no manufactureros publicados en todo el mundo desde varios países. Además de eso, los PMI de servicios estarán en el centro de atención. El RBA y el BoE están listos para entregar sus decisiones de tipos de interés. Y, por supuesto, el sector laboral de EE. UU. Estará enfocado al viernes.

El lunes, Canadá celebrará sus vacaciones cívicas, lo que significa que los intercambios canadienses estarán cerrados. En lo que respecta al calendario económico, habrá algunos países que entregarán algunos de sus datos económicos.

El lunes comenzó con el último trimestre de Japón y las cifras anualizadas de la tasa de crecimiento del PIB. Inicialmente, el pronóstico para el QoQ se situó en -1.1%, lo que ya fue una decepción para la economía japonesa. La versión real mostró la misma lectura que la anterior, a -0.6%. La cifra anualizada del PIB también fue más positiva en relación con su pronóstico inicial. El número real también salió el -2.2% , mostrando muy por encima del esperado -4.4%. Los datos ayudaron a mantener la positividad en Nikkei 225 hoy.

Varias naciones informarán sus números de PMI de fabricación para el mes de julio. Durante la mañana asiática, Japón comenzó con su lanzamiento, que previamente se esperaba que mejorara, pasando de 40.1 a 42.6. El número real apareció en un nivel aún mejor, en 45.2. Los datos también ayudaron a mantener a Nikkei 225 en el territorio positivo de hoy.

Ahora, saltando sobre la península de Corea, en China, la imagen también fue más positiva, lo que sugiere que la fabricación en el país continúa repuntando. Se creía que el número de PMI de fabricación de Caixin había mejorado fraccionalmente de 51.2 a 51.3, pero apareció en un nivel mucho mejor, en 52.8. Aunque el número es bueno, los participantes del mercado continuarán poniendo un poco más de énfasis en los problemas actuales con el coronavirus y las tensiones entre Estados Unidos y China.

Más adelante, obtendremos los PMI de fabricación de la eurozona, junto con informes de algunos estados miembros individuales. En general, se espera que la eurozona muestre un número decente, lo que indica que volvió al territorio expansivo, pasando de la cifra anterior de 47.4 a 51.1.

Estados Unidos también está listo para entregar su lectura de PMI , junto con el PMI de fabricación de ISM, ambos para julio. Se pronostica que el primer indicador se trasladó de una zona de contracción a una expansiva, pasando de 49.8 a 51.3. Se cree que la cifra de ISM también ha mejorado, de 52.6 a 53.6. Si las lecturas salen como se pronosticaron, esto podría verse como algo positivo, pero comparándolo con el número de junio, el aumento no sería significativo. Dicho esto, debido a los tiempos de pandemia, mientras la lectura se mantenga en territorio expansivo, los inversores podrían seguir satisfechos.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI

El martes, Japón publicará sus cifras de IPC centrales y principales YoY en Tokyo para el mes de julio. Se cree que el primero se mantuvo igual, en + 0.2%. Actualmente no hay pronósticos disponibles para el número , pero sabemos que el anterior estaba en + 0.3%.

Después de un par de horas, será el turno de Australia de ser el centro de atención. El país entregará primero sus cifras de ventas minoristas de MoM y QoQ. Últimamente, la lectura de MoM ha sido muy volátil, oscilando aproximadamente entre -18% y + 17%. Por el momento, se espera que las ventas minoristas de MoM para junio se hayan movido a + 16.3%, lo que si se compara con la misma lectura de MoM en el mismo momento del año pasado (+ 0.4%) lo que sería un salto importante. Sin embargo, debido al coronavirus, es difícil tener una comparación similar, utilizando los datos del año anterior y los de este año. Por ahora, nos centraremos principalmente en las lecturas anteriores y las previsiones. Una cifra mejor de lo esperado podría ayudar a respaldar al dólar australiano y aportar un poco de positividad a las perspectivas económicas a corto plazo.

Pero el enfoque principal para los operadores de AUD estará en el RBA y su decisión sobre los tipos de interés y la declaración adjunta. Actualmente, se espera que el Banco mantenga la tasa de efectivo al mismo nivel de + 0.25%. En la declaración de política monetaria del mes pasado, el RBA declaró que la economía australiana está experimentando la mayor contracción desde la década de 1930. El desempleo en el país ha aumentado aproximadamente un 2% adicional, en comparación con el lugar donde estuvo durante 2019 y en los primeros tres meses de 2020. El Banco continúa monitoreando cuidadosamente la situación económica en el país y las tensiones entre Estados Unidos y China.

Australia Interest Rate

As for the rest of Tuesday’s data, oil traders might keep an eye on the weekly US crude oil inventories delivered by the American Petroleum Institute. Currently, there is no forecast for the upcoming figure.

Wednesday will be a busy day in terms of economic data releases. During the early Asian morning hours New Zealand will release its jobs numbers, which are expected to have worsened slightly, comparing to the previous readings. The QoQ employment change number is believed to have dropped to -1.9% from the previous +0.7%. Participation rate is forecasted to have moved to 69.70% from 70.40%, and the overall unemployment rate is believed to have risen from 4.2% to 5.7%. That is roughly a 35% jump in registered people who are without a job, but actively seeking employment. If all the actual numbers show up as forecasted, or worse, this may have a negative effect on the New Zealand dollar.

Wednesday will also be a service PMI day, with various countries across the globe delivering their data on this indicator. China’s composite and Caixin services PMI numbers do not have any expectations at the moment. All we know that the Caixin number has been on the right track, as it continued to rise from April, after a heavy decline in March. The composite number has been on a more stable side, after its recovery in April.

Sweden will also be one of those countries, which will deliver its services PMI reading, which currently has no forecast available. Instead, the spotlight will fall on the country’s GDP flash growth rates on a QoQ and YoY basis. Currently the expectation is to see better than the previous numbers, going from 49.2 to 52.9.

Apart from some individual European member states, the eurozone as a whole will deliver its composite and services PMIs for the month of July. Currently, the expectations are that the sectors have moved out of the contractionary territory into the expansionary one, with the composite reading believed to show up at 54.8 and the services figure forecasted to appear at 55.1. If so, euro traders may take it a good sign, if the actual numbers show up better than expected. However, if the actual readings are above 50, but below forecast, that might cause EUR to retrace a bit lower against USD, which could be seen as a corrective move, following a strong rally during last week.

UK, US and EU Services PMI

Later, the light will fall on the US data, in particular on the country’s ADP non-farm employment change, services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI and crude oil inventories. The first one is sometimes used as gauge for the upcoming US non-farm payroll number, which is set to be delivered on Friday. The ADP reading is expected to have declined to 1500k from the previous 2369k. If so, then investors might assume that Friday’s payroll number could come out on the lower side as well. That said, let’s not forget that one should not solely rely on this theory, as history shows that the two data sets might not always move hand in hand in the same direction.

US services PMI is expected to have risen from the previous 47.9 to 49.6. Although it may be seen as a good result, still, that would keep the sector in contractionary zone, below 50. The ISM non-manufacturing reading is forecast to have declined somewhat, going from 57.1 to 55.0. Nevertheless, that would still keep the figure in expansion zone. If the actual readings of the indicators discussed above come out as expected, this might cause a slight negative effect on the US dollar.

US ISM non-manufacturing PMI

US weekly crude oil inventories are also coming out and the expectation is currently for an increase in the number of barrels stored. The previous figure was at -10.612mln, whereas the current reading is believed to have risen to +0.357mln barrels, which could be seen as a negative for the price of crude oil.     

Thursday will kick off with the Bank of England and its interest rate decision. In addition to that, the BoE will present the Inflation Report. In terms of the interest rate decision, no fireworks are expected there, as the Bank is believed to keep the current rate unchanged, at +0.1%. The Monetary Policy Committee will continue monitoring the effects of the coronavirus on the British economy. Also, one of the main concerns for the BoE have been low levels of inflation. The headline CPI on a YoY basis, during the past 3 readings, came out even below 1%, which is far from the Banks target of +2.0%. Certainly, one of the measures to try and raise inflation could be to lower the interest rate, however the rate is already at its historic low of +0.1% and we doubt that the Bank would try to send the rate below zero any time soon.

Later on, UK will produce its construction PMI figure for July, which is forecasted to come out at 57.0. If so, that would be a good increase from the previous 55.3 reading and could help support the British currency.

As every week, from the US we will get the initial jobless claims, together with the continuing jobless claims. The current forecast for the initial jobless claims sits at around 1450k, which is very close to the previous reading of 1434k. Lately, the number has stabilised just slightly below 1500k, which some might see as a positive. However, the number is still on the high side, comparing to where it was before mid-March.

US Initial vs Continuing Jobless Claims

Continuing jobless claims remain well above the pre-April levels. The previous reading was at 17018k, when in the end of March it was only around 1800k. The current expectation is for the reading to come out at around 17200k.   

Finally, on Friday, we will have a busy day already from the early hours of the Asian morning, when the RBA will deliver its monetary policy statement.

But still, the main focus will fall on the US jobs numbers for the month of July. The previous reading we had was at 4800k, whereas this one is believed to come out slightly less than half of the June figure, at around 2200k. Given that July was another difficult month for US businesses, due to the lockdowns in various states, after the coronavirus cases surged sharply, there is a possibility that the number might stay on the lower side. Although the unemployment figure is believed to have ticked down from 11.1% to 10.5%, we prefer to wait for the official release first. If the numbers are below their forecasts, we might see the US indices turning south slightly. However, this might be short-lived, as the main focus right now is on the coronavirus and US-China tensions. The USD might take the role of safe-haven and strengthen a bit.

US NFP

Also, the average hourly earnings number on a MoM basis is believed to have improved from -1.2% to -0.5%, however the YoY number is forecasted to have declined from +5.0% to +4.1%, which still keeps the grim on the labour market stability.

Canada will also produce its jobs figures for the month of July. Unemployment is expected to have moved a bit lower, from 12.3% to 11.1%. The focus will also fall on Canada’s labour participation number. The previous number was 63.8%, but the actual figure is forecasted to have improved fractionally, going to 64%.

Disclaimer:

The content we produce does not constitute investment advice or investment recommendation (should not be considered as such) and does not in any way constitute an invitation to acquire any financial instrument or product. The Group of Companies of JFD, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees are not liable for any damages that may be caused by individual comments or statements by JFD analysts and assumes no liability with respect to the completeness and correctness of the content presented. The investor is solely responsible for the risk of his investment decisions. Accordingly, you should seek, if you consider appropriate, relevant independent professional advice on the investment considered. The analyses and comments presented do not include any consideration of your personal investment objectives, financial circumstances or needs. The content has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements for financial analyses and must therefore be viewed by the reader as marketing information. JFD prohibits the duplication or publication without explicit approval.

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